Do the math...

I've taken a look at the three scenarios for how the Florida and Michigan delegates could have been split up. In NONE of the scenarios is Hillary even close to getting a majority, let alone within 150 delegates of Obama's totals. In fact, in both Scenario 1 and 3, Obama would have the requisite delegates as of last night. In Scenario 2, which is the most favorable to Clinton, Obama receives NO delegates from Michigan, yet he is within 45 delegates, where Clinton is still just below 200 delegates away. So anyone claiming that the Rules Committee stole this election from Clinton is living in a fantasy world.

Click on the list below to take a closer look at my data:

OBAMA WINS!

Dozens of superdelegates hopped on the bandwagon and endorsed Barack Obama today, speeding the freight train down the tracks. Just before the South Dakota polls closed, Barack needed just four delegates, which he easily received. Look for Montana to add another 9 delegates to his count, and by morning look for most of the remaining superdelegates to endorse Obama.

It's now midnight on the East Coast. Obama has run up his delegate total to more than 2150. Clinton stands more than 230 delegates behind Obama and nearly 100 short of the 2118 threshold, and yet she still refuses to concede.

Tenacity is one thing. Insanity is another. Now, I don't think she is insane, so she must be angling for something... whether it be the Vice Presidency, or something else. She has to get this issue settled this week and let the Democratic party move on to the General Election and beating John McCain.

Here's how the networks score it:

MSNBC:
Obama: 2156
Clinton: 1933

CNN:
Obama: 2156
Clinton: 1923

Fox:
Obama: 2154
Clinton: 1919

ABC:
Obama: 2154
Clinton: 1916

CBS:
Obama: 2154
Clinton: 1926

McCain's Lobbyists

John McCain, the 'maverick' Republican Presidential candidate, claimed that lobbyists should not have any part of a political campaign. "Registered lobbyists who work for campaigns as fundraisers clearly represent a conflict of interest," McCain said in 1996. "When a campaign employs an individual who also lobbies that member, the perception of undue and unfair influence is raised."

Flash forward to 2008. Here's a list of the McCain lobbyists who currently work, or have up until recently been working on his campaign staff. I'll be taking a closer look at these people over the coming weeks.

McCain's Inner Circle. Click on the links, these guys actually advertise that they are lobbyists on the McCain payroll!

• Rick Davis: McCain Campaign Director
• Lobbying connections:
  
• David Manafort, Inc. (Lobbying firm, founder)
  
• COMSAT
• SBC Communications
  

• Wayne Berman: National Finance Committee Co-Chair & Senior Adviser
• Lobbying connections:
• Ogilvy Government Relations (Lobbyist and Managing Director)
  
• Carlyle Group
• Citigroup
• Airbus
  

• Charlie Black: Chief Political Adviser
• Lobbying connections:
• BKSH & Associates (Chairman)
  
• General Motors
• United Technologies
• JP Morgan
• AT&T
  

• David Crane: Senior Political Adviser
• Lobbying connections:
• Quadripoint Strategies (Lobbyist and President)
• Bank of America
• Financial Services Roundtable
• US Chamber of Commerce
  

• Mike Dennehy: National Political Director
• Lobbying Connections:
• The Dennehy Group (Founder)
  

Other lobbyist/campaign members:
Carlos Bonilla
Tom Loeffler
Wiliam Ball
Susan Nelson
James Courter
Anthony Villamil
Christian Ferry
James Rill
John Green
John Timmons
Brian Ballard

Grant Aldonas
Nancy Pfotenhauer
Jerry Kilgore
Slade Gorton
Joseph Wright
Richard Zimmer
Don Sunquist
William Hilleary
Aquiles Suarez
Matt Salmon
Robert Aiker
Kirk Blalock
Timothy McCone

Other notables:
Vicki Iseman
Lowell 'Bud' Paxson

05/28/08 Midday Blog

It's been rather quiet on the delegate front since last week.
Obama has pulled a few more delegates his way. Hillary - not so many.
The way it currently stands is as follows:

Obama:
1661 pledge delegates
317 superdelegates
1978 total delegates

Clinton:
1499 pledge delegates
281 superdelegates
1780 total delegates

Remaining:
86 pledge delegates
198 superdelegates
7 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
291 total delegates available


Obama should pull about 35 of the remaining pledge delegates to Clinton's 52 over the final three primaries. That would give Obama AT LEAST 2013 delegates, and only needing 13 of the superdelegates to flip his way... this is assuming that he gets no additional superdelegates between now and next Tuesday. My guess is that he will get another 5 or so superdelegates... but as he gets closer, many will jump on the bandwagon to be the one to 'put him over the top'

Again, Clinton continues on her demands to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. There is a hearing this weekend that will hopefully put this issue to rest once and for all. Regardless of the outcome, it will at least let us move on to other issues. My guess is that some of those state delegates will be seated. How many, remains to be seen. Even if all were seated per the primary distributions for those states, Obama would be about 50 shy vs. Clinton over 200 away from the nomination.

Hillary and the real story of the RFK statement

Responding to a question from the Sioux Falls Argus Leader editorial board about calls for her to drop out of the race, she said: "My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. You know I just, I don't understand it," she said, dismissing the idea of abandoning the race.

While this quote was clearly a gaffe by Mrs. Clinton, I don't put too much stock in the premise that the RFK assassination comment was an intentional link to assassinating a surging presidential candidate. However, one part of her comments requires more analysis. This relates to the reference to her husband's primary battle in 1992 and the battle (or lack thereof) that ensued leading up his wrapping up the nomination.

In 1992 there were initially 7 Democratic Candidates, but only a few were actual contenders. Early in the election season, President Bush (the first) was riding some of the highest polling numbers of any sitting president, due mostly to the success of the first Gulf War. But those numbers quickly started to fall off, until they completely fell of the cliff. He was able to somewhat pull his poll numbers back up near the general election. But by that time it was too late. Ross Perot had entered the race, splitting the Republican fence-sitters and handing the presidency to Bill Clinton.

Let's look at the major democratic competition back in 1992:

• Tom Harkin: Won the Iowa caucases and Idaho and Minnesota, but fared poorly in New Hampshire. Harkin dropped out of the race on March 9th.
  
  
• Bob Kerrey: Announced his candidacy in September 1991. His candidacy was never considered part of the top-tier. He finished a distant third in New Hampshire in February. He rebounded by winning South Dakota (his only win), but dropped out after finishing a lackluster fourth in Colorado on March 3rd. By this date, there were only three candidates left, Clinton, Tsongas and Brown.

• Paul Tsongas: Won the New Hampshire primary, but was unable to match Clinton in fundraising. James Carville had accurately declared Clinton the 'Comeback Kid' after New Hampshire, and things were rolling for the Clinton nomination. Tsongas withdrew from the race on March 17, but carried 289 delegates to the convention.
  

• Jerry Brown: Jerry Brown was the only opposing candidate that actually posed a threat to Clinton late in the primary season. A narrow win in Wisconsin (37% to 34%) gave him some credibility, but on the same day, he was pummelled in New York (41% to 26%). This essentially ended the competitive primary campaign. Brown, however, brought 596 delegates to the convention.

And let's take a closer look at the actual primary schedule from 1992. First of all, the primaries didn't START until February 10th. Here's the schedule and winners of each primary:

February 10:
Iowa - Harkin easily wins

February 18:
New Hampshire - Tsongas wins

February 25:
South Dakota - Kerrey’s only win

March 3:
Colorado - Brown
Georgia - Clinton
Maryland - Tsongas
Minnesota caucus - Harkin
Idaho caucus - Harkin

March 7:
South Carolina - Clinton

March 10:
Florida - Clinton
Louisiana - Clinton
Massachusetts - Tsongas
Mississippi - Clinton
Oklahoma - Clinton
Rhode Island - Tsongas
Tennessee - Clinton
Texas - Clinton
Hawaii caucus - Clinton
Missouri caucus - Clinton
Delaware caucus - Tsongas
Clinton builds a big lead by this date.

March 17:
Illinois - Clinton
Michigan - Clinton

March 24:
Connecticut - surpising win by Brown

April 7:
Kansas - Clinton
Minnesota primary - Clinton
New York - Clinton
Wisconsin - Clinton

April 28:
Pennsylvania - Clinton

May 5:
District of Columbia
Indiana - Clinton
North Carolina - Clinton

May 12:
Nebraska - Clinton
West Virginia - Clinton

May 19:
Oregon - Clinton
Washington - Clinton

May 26:
Arkansas - Clinton
Idaho - Clinton
Kentucky - Clinton

June 2:
Alabama - Clinton
California - Clinton
Montana - Clinton
New Jersey - Clinton
New Mexico - Clinton
Ohio - Clinton

June 9:
North Dakota - Clinton

After March 24th, Clinton never lost another primary. He rolled to the nomination, even capturing California, the home state of his chief rival, Jerry Brown. It was never a close race by the beginning of May, let alone the middle of June as Mrs. Clinton claims.

So all of this is in reality a stronger argument for Hillary to stay in the race. This race is still far more up in the air than 1992 (even though it is pretty clear that Obama will cross the finish line first). The problem with her statement is the inherent dishonesty in it. Had she argued that her husband had a much easier ride in 1992 and this is the closest primary season, the credibility of the argument would be much stronger.

Crony Of the Week - 05/26/08: Tim Griffin

For those of you who still remember the US Attorney scandal from a couple years ago, here's a name you probably remember.

Tim Griffin - he's now the Republican National Committee's Director of Research (aka Mudslinging Central). He'll be heading up 'opposition research' for the McCain Campaign. So look for more Swift Boat attacks on Obama.

Let's take a closer look at Mr. Griffin's illustrious resume:

• 1999 - 2000: Deputy Research Director for the Bush Campaign.
  
  
• 2000: Legal adviser for the Bush-Cheney Recount Team
  
  
• 2004: Research Director and Deputy Communications Director for the Bush Campaign, where, among his slimy work, he reported led a vote caging scheme for the Republicans.
  
  
• 2005-2006: Special Assistant to the President and Deputy Director in the Office of Political Affairs (in other words, Karl Rove's personal toadie).
  
  
• In December of 2006, after the Bush Administration booted several US Attorneys, Mr. Griffin was named as the interim US Attorney for the Eastern District of Arkansas. It was revealed by Congressional investigations that the White House wanted the Arkansas US Attorney position vacant so they could specifically insert Griffin into it. Hmmm.... I wonder if there was any potential Democratic presidential hopeful with ties to Arkansas back in '06 who he could have dredged up some dirt on? I wonder... unfortunately for the White House, the Congressional investigation short-circuited their plans to have Griffin poke around to try to discover something untoward about the Clintons.
  
  
• On June 1, 2007, right in the middle of Congressional investigations, Griffin resigned his US Attorney post...
  
  But of course, like chewing gum stuck to the bottom of your shoe, he's not THAT easy to get rid of. He's back once again, to work his magic on Obama. It's going to be a long and bumpy road to November.
  
  

05/23/08 Midday Blog

Four more delegates have moved into the Obama column (2 former Edwards pledge delegates and 2 superdelegates)

Obama:
1660 pledge delegates
309 superdelegates
1969 total delegates

Clinton:
1500 pledge delegates
279 superdelegates
1779 total delegates

Remaining:
86 pledge delegates
208 superdelegates
7 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
303 total delegates available

Obama now needs only 57 delegates to secure the nomination - about 19% of the yet to be awarded delegates.

And as I mentioned in past blogs, if you were to apply the FL & MI delegates as Hillary is demanding, Obama would still lead 2102 to 1971, needing only 108 delegates to Hillary's 239 requirement.