05/28/08 Midday Blog

It's been rather quiet on the delegate front since last week.
Obama has pulled a few more delegates his way. Hillary - not so many.
The way it currently stands is as follows:

Obama:
1661 pledge delegates
317 superdelegates
1978 total delegates

Clinton:
1499 pledge delegates
281 superdelegates
1780 total delegates

Remaining:
86 pledge delegates
198 superdelegates
7 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
291 total delegates available


Obama should pull about 35 of the remaining pledge delegates to Clinton's 52 over the final three primaries. That would give Obama AT LEAST 2013 delegates, and only needing 13 of the superdelegates to flip his way... this is assuming that he gets no additional superdelegates between now and next Tuesday. My guess is that he will get another 5 or so superdelegates... but as he gets closer, many will jump on the bandwagon to be the one to 'put him over the top'

Again, Clinton continues on her demands to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. There is a hearing this weekend that will hopefully put this issue to rest once and for all. Regardless of the outcome, it will at least let us move on to other issues. My guess is that some of those state delegates will be seated. How many, remains to be seen. Even if all were seated per the primary distributions for those states, Obama would be about 50 shy vs. Clinton over 200 away from the nomination.

Hillary and the real story of the RFK statement

Responding to a question from the Sioux Falls Argus Leader editorial board about calls for her to drop out of the race, she said: "My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. You know I just, I don't understand it," she said, dismissing the idea of abandoning the race.

While this quote was clearly a gaffe by Mrs. Clinton, I don't put too much stock in the premise that the RFK assassination comment was an intentional link to assassinating a surging presidential candidate. However, one part of her comments requires more analysis. This relates to the reference to her husband's primary battle in 1992 and the battle (or lack thereof) that ensued leading up his wrapping up the nomination.

In 1992 there were initially 7 Democratic Candidates, but only a few were actual contenders. Early in the election season, President Bush (the first) was riding some of the highest polling numbers of any sitting president, due mostly to the success of the first Gulf War. But those numbers quickly started to fall off, until they completely fell of the cliff. He was able to somewhat pull his poll numbers back up near the general election. But by that time it was too late. Ross Perot had entered the race, splitting the Republican fence-sitters and handing the presidency to Bill Clinton.

Let's look at the major democratic competition back in 1992:

• Tom Harkin: Won the Iowa caucases and Idaho and Minnesota, but fared poorly in New Hampshire. Harkin dropped out of the race on March 9th.
  
  
• Bob Kerrey: Announced his candidacy in September 1991. His candidacy was never considered part of the top-tier. He finished a distant third in New Hampshire in February. He rebounded by winning South Dakota (his only win), but dropped out after finishing a lackluster fourth in Colorado on March 3rd. By this date, there were only three candidates left, Clinton, Tsongas and Brown.

• Paul Tsongas: Won the New Hampshire primary, but was unable to match Clinton in fundraising. James Carville had accurately declared Clinton the 'Comeback Kid' after New Hampshire, and things were rolling for the Clinton nomination. Tsongas withdrew from the race on March 17, but carried 289 delegates to the convention.
  

• Jerry Brown: Jerry Brown was the only opposing candidate that actually posed a threat to Clinton late in the primary season. A narrow win in Wisconsin (37% to 34%) gave him some credibility, but on the same day, he was pummelled in New York (41% to 26%). This essentially ended the competitive primary campaign. Brown, however, brought 596 delegates to the convention.

And let's take a closer look at the actual primary schedule from 1992. First of all, the primaries didn't START until February 10th. Here's the schedule and winners of each primary:

February 10:
Iowa - Harkin easily wins

February 18:
New Hampshire - Tsongas wins

February 25:
South Dakota - Kerrey’s only win

March 3:
Colorado - Brown
Georgia - Clinton
Maryland - Tsongas
Minnesota caucus - Harkin
Idaho caucus - Harkin

March 7:
South Carolina - Clinton

March 10:
Florida - Clinton
Louisiana - Clinton
Massachusetts - Tsongas
Mississippi - Clinton
Oklahoma - Clinton
Rhode Island - Tsongas
Tennessee - Clinton
Texas - Clinton
Hawaii caucus - Clinton
Missouri caucus - Clinton
Delaware caucus - Tsongas
Clinton builds a big lead by this date.

March 17:
Illinois - Clinton
Michigan - Clinton

March 24:
Connecticut - surpising win by Brown

April 7:
Kansas - Clinton
Minnesota primary - Clinton
New York - Clinton
Wisconsin - Clinton

April 28:
Pennsylvania - Clinton

May 5:
District of Columbia
Indiana - Clinton
North Carolina - Clinton

May 12:
Nebraska - Clinton
West Virginia - Clinton

May 19:
Oregon - Clinton
Washington - Clinton

May 26:
Arkansas - Clinton
Idaho - Clinton
Kentucky - Clinton

June 2:
Alabama - Clinton
California - Clinton
Montana - Clinton
New Jersey - Clinton
New Mexico - Clinton
Ohio - Clinton

June 9:
North Dakota - Clinton

After March 24th, Clinton never lost another primary. He rolled to the nomination, even capturing California, the home state of his chief rival, Jerry Brown. It was never a close race by the beginning of May, let alone the middle of June as Mrs. Clinton claims.

So all of this is in reality a stronger argument for Hillary to stay in the race. This race is still far more up in the air than 1992 (even though it is pretty clear that Obama will cross the finish line first). The problem with her statement is the inherent dishonesty in it. Had she argued that her husband had a much easier ride in 1992 and this is the closest primary season, the credibility of the argument would be much stronger.

Crony Of the Week - 05/26/08: Tim Griffin

For those of you who still remember the US Attorney scandal from a couple years ago, here's a name you probably remember.

Tim Griffin - he's now the Republican National Committee's Director of Research (aka Mudslinging Central). He'll be heading up 'opposition research' for the McCain Campaign. So look for more Swift Boat attacks on Obama.

Let's take a closer look at Mr. Griffin's illustrious resume:

• 1999 - 2000: Deputy Research Director for the Bush Campaign.
  
  
• 2000: Legal adviser for the Bush-Cheney Recount Team
  
  
• 2004: Research Director and Deputy Communications Director for the Bush Campaign, where, among his slimy work, he reported led a vote caging scheme for the Republicans.
  
  
• 2005-2006: Special Assistant to the President and Deputy Director in the Office of Political Affairs (in other words, Karl Rove's personal toadie).
  
  
• In December of 2006, after the Bush Administration booted several US Attorneys, Mr. Griffin was named as the interim US Attorney for the Eastern District of Arkansas. It was revealed by Congressional investigations that the White House wanted the Arkansas US Attorney position vacant so they could specifically insert Griffin into it. Hmmm.... I wonder if there was any potential Democratic presidential hopeful with ties to Arkansas back in '06 who he could have dredged up some dirt on? I wonder... unfortunately for the White House, the Congressional investigation short-circuited their plans to have Griffin poke around to try to discover something untoward about the Clintons.
  
  
• On June 1, 2007, right in the middle of Congressional investigations, Griffin resigned his US Attorney post...
  
  But of course, like chewing gum stuck to the bottom of your shoe, he's not THAT easy to get rid of. He's back once again, to work his magic on Obama. It's going to be a long and bumpy road to November.