05/23/08 Midday Blog

Four more delegates have moved into the Obama column (2 former Edwards pledge delegates and 2 superdelegates)

Obama:
1660 pledge delegates
309 superdelegates
1969 total delegates

Clinton:
1500 pledge delegates
279 superdelegates
1779 total delegates

Remaining:
86 pledge delegates
208 superdelegates
7 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
303 total delegates available

Obama now needs only 57 delegates to secure the nomination - about 19% of the yet to be awarded delegates.

And as I mentioned in past blogs, if you were to apply the FL & MI delegates as Hillary is demanding, Obama would still lead 2102 to 1971, needing only 108 delegates to Hillary's 239 requirement.

McCain expected to say "Goodnight, Gracie" by 2008

In a 2000 interview by Jim Lehrer, McCain thought he would be too old to be president by 2008. So why should we believe that he isn't too old now?



h/t to Crooksandliars

The Republican Party "Rebrands" Itself

"We're going to give you the change you deserve"

House Minority Leader, John Bohener

New name, same stink!

Brother can you spare a dime?

05/22/08 midday blog

Obama:
1658 pledge delegates
307 superdelegates
1965 total delegates

Clinton:
1500 pledge delegates
279 superdelegates
1779 total delegates

Remaining:
88 pledge delegates
210 superdelegates
9 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
307 total delegates available

Obama now needs less than 20% of the remaining delegates to receive the nomiation.
Clinton now needs more than 80% of the remaining delegates for the nomination.

If Florida and Michigan were included into the mix (as Clinton keeps belaboring), Obama would have a 2098 to 1971 lead, and would need 112 additional delegates for the nomination vs. Clinton requiring 239 delegates (again, with only 307 delegates remaining).

Kentucky and Oregon Post-Mortem

So Kentucky and West Virginia have shown that Obama has difficulty with the beer-swilling, gun-toting, junior high educated, Appalachian redneck crowd (cue music from Deliverance). What a surprise!

Here's the tally as of 9:30 am after the KY and OR primaries (with 4 OR delegates still not awarded):
Obama: 1962
Clinton: 1777
Remaining pledge delegates: 92
Remaining superdelegates: 211
(I had predicted 1964 to 1776 - pretty darn close!)

After last night, Hillary is in exactly the same position as she was last Saturday - down by 185 delegates. Actually, she's in a worse position, as there are now 116 fewer delegates up for grabs.

Obama needs 64 (or 21%) of the remaining delegates for the nomination.
Clinton needs 249 (or 82%) of the remaining delegates for the nomination.
In two weeks the final pledge delegates will be awarded. Hillary should win Puerto Rico and Obama should win both Montana and South Dakota. With those primaries in the bank, look for Hillary to receive about 50 of those delegates to Barack's 36. But prior to the June 3rd primaries, look for Obama to continue increasing his lead in the delegate count, so that by the evening of June 3rd, he should be within 20 delegates of the nomination and any large delegate win for Hillary on June 3rd will be insignificant.

As always, stay tuned.

05/20/08 Midday Blog

Obama has widened the gap between him and Clinton today. He stands at 1918 delegates (up 9 since yesterday) to Clinton's 1719 (up 1 since yesterday). After tonight's primary tally, Obama should have about 1964 delegates to Clinton's 1776. She will have gained about a dozen delegates with her big win in Kentucky, but given the limited number of delegates remaining, Obama should be within about 20 by the concluding primaries on June 3rd.

By the way, the Clinton team keeps demanding that the Michigan and Florida state delegates be seated (regardless of her agreeing to omit them back when she 'knew' her candidacy was inevitable). Even if those delegates were counted, Obama would be STILL be leading 2051 to 1911, and within 159 of the nomination (to Clinton's 300 delegate shortfall). So don't believe it when the Clinton team claims they would be in the lead if ALL 50 states were counted. It's just not true!

Kevin James and his fresh (never frozen) Garden Appeasers

Hats off to Chris Matthews for exposing this rube for what he is - just another right wingnut spewing the latest party talking points. And to think that someone this intellectually shallow was once a federal prosecutor! And David Iglesias was fired for substandard performance? WOW.