McCain Flip Flops on Hamas

05/16/08 Midday Blog

24 hours ago, Barack was at 1899 to Hillary's 1719. Today, five more superdelegates have given Barack the nod. None have done so for Hillary.

Current Status:
Barack: 122 delegates away.
Hillary: 307 delegates away.
Remaining: 408 delegates.

Prediction:
By the end of Tuesday's Oregon and Kentucky primaries, Obama will be at or above 1950 delegates, with about 75 or so to go. On the heels of Tuesday are the final primaries (6/01 & 6/03). Look for Barack to be hitting the 2000 delegate mark at the end of these primaries.

MS-01 Special Election Results - The Shape of Things to Come

On Tuesday, Travis Childers (D) defeated Greg Davis (R) in the special election run-off for the House seat vacated by Roger Wickers (R). The Democrats are now 3-0 in recent special elections for seats traditionally considered safe Republican seats - MS-01, LA-06, IL-14. In fact, the Illinois 14th district was Speaker of the House Denny Hastert's seat. These three defeats can only be considered stunning upsets to the party, and a very dark foreshadowing of November.




In December, Wickers was appointed to the Senate seat that Trent Lott abdicated in December. In January, the lobbying rules changed - former legislators now cannot become lobbyists for two years rather than one - I wonder if THAT had anything to do with Lott leaving the Senate prior to completing his term, but that's a whole other story!

The real story from Tuesday night is NOT Hillary's huge win in West Virginia. It is the stunning MS-01 victory of Childers. Former congressman Wickers has held this seat since the 'Republican Revolution' of 1994. In fact, over the past four election cycles, Wickers has won his seat by no less than 30%. This has been clearly considered a safe seat for the Republicans. Not anymore. And the Democrats should consider a huge number of Republican seats targets.

05/15/08 Midday Blog

As of right now, according to CNN, Obama has surged to 1899 delegates vs. Clinton's count of 1719. Since the 'devastating' defeat of Obama by Clinton on Tuesday, Obama has increased the gap by 14 delegates. He now only needs about 30% of the remaining delegates to Hillary's 75% requirement.

Bush, the great statesman, addresses the Israeli Parliament

This week President Bush delivered a speech to the Israeli parliament commemorating the 60th anniversary of Israel. In his speech, Bush made the ridiculous claim that Senator Barack Obama and the Democrats favor a policy of appeasement toward terrorists. He compared the Democrats to WWII politicians as: “other U.S. leaders back in the run-up to World War II who appeased the Nazis.”

In his speech, Bush said, “As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: ‘Lord, if only I could have talked to Hitler, all of this might have been avoided.’ We have an obligation to call this what it is – the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history.”

White House aides are acknowledging that this was a reference to the fact that Obama and other Democrats have publicly said that it would be ok for the U.S. President to meet with leaders like the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. Of course, the current policy of burying one’s head in the sand and refusing to talk to our adversaries has been so effective.

Where would this country be if Kennedy had not talked to Kruschev; had Nixon not talked to the Chinese; if Reagan had not talked to Gorbachev? Bush’s short sided, our way or the highway mentality has done tremendous damage to this country’s standing in the world. Thank God this reign of terror will end in eight months.

McCain's Hypocrisy

For the 'maverick' who bucks the Republican establishment, McCain is hardly an independent voice. His wife, Cindy, continues to flagrantly thumb her nose at releasing her tax records, claiming that she's not the candidate so her records are immaterial. Four years ago, when Democrat John Kerry's wife was castigated by the Republicans for holding back on her tax records, she finally relented. So where are the Republicans now? Curiously silent.

What does Cindy McCain's tax record have to do with the presidential race. In reality, not too much, except for the fact that John McCain is jetting around on her private plane (the Sugar-Momma Express, or as Sam Seder has named it - Trollup One). McCain the candidate is directly benefiting from the use of a private CORPORATE jet.

In an interview by ABC last week, Mrs. McCain was quoted as saying (in that sickly sweet, soft-spoken drawl): "My husband and I have been married 28 years, and we have filed separate tax returns for 28 years." Hmmm... my question is why have they filed separate returns for all those years? What is she trying to hide? Could it be that having her HUGE income included in Mr. McCain's return would make this 'maverick' man of the people look like just another fat-cat politician?

Back when McCain was pretty much written off as a candidate for the 2008 nomination, he agreed to accept matching funds, which limits the amount of private funds a candidate can use in the campaign. He used this promise to secure additional loans for his campaign. After he began to surge in the primaries and the donor money started to roll in, he said never mind. Since he never actually collected the matching funds, he was not bound by the
promise he already made. Hmmmm... let's see, can I borrow your house to use as collateral to get a personal loan and then give it back when I get my loans? That doesn't seem legal does it? Guess what? IT'S NOT! McCain willfully broke the law to raise the cash to secure the nomination.

There's your 'maverick'. Sounds more like politics as usual to me.

John Edwards Further Sinks Hillary's Hopes

Today, John Edwards finally hopped off the fence and threw his support to Barack Obama. Look for more superdelegates to continue to align themselves with Barack. Currently, the gap between Obama and Clinton is 166 delegates (CNN count) with 429 delegates unpledged. Obama needs 142 more delegates - less than 1/3 of the remaining delegates. Hillary needs 308 delegates - more than 70% of the remaining delegates.

So Edwards has 18 (NBC) or 19 (CNN) pledge delegates from the primaries. These delegates are not technically bound to go with Edwards' endorsement, but they typically do in fact go with their candidate's choice. If this is in fact the case, Obama is not 142 delegates away, but 123 or 124 away, bringing him within 3% of the nomination. Barack would only need about 28% of the remaining delegates. If this does in fact hold true, by June 3rd, Obama will be within about 20 delegates of the nomination.

Looks pretty grim for Hillary. If the fat lady isn't singing yet, she certainly is warming up her pipes!

Note: Democrat Travis Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis on Tuesday in a Mississippi district that hasn't voted Democratic in more than 15 years. So the required delegate count to receive the nomination has increased by one to 2026, further increasing the number of delegates needed by Hillary.

West Virginia post-mortem

Yes, Hillary won a resounding victory in last night's primary. Hillary gained exactly 12 delegates. In the meantime, Obama gained a few more superdelegates. So the gap between the two stands at approximately 166. I had predicted a gap of about 160 for today, so Barack continues to move toward the nomination. There are about 430 delegates still up for grabs. And Obama needs just 142 of those delegates to win the nomination (that's less than 1/3).

More to follow...

West Virginia Primary

So the latest primary to end all primaries is upon us. Hillary claims that no Democrat has ever won the White House without first winning the primary in WV since 1916... uh, WRONG! Jimmy Carter lost the WV primary to Robert Byrd in 1976 and still won the White House.


So this is all much ado about nothing. West Virginia is no more critical than any other state... It is critical for Hillary as she has her back against the wall. But for Barack? I don't think so. Barack has built up a large enough cushion that is insurmountable for Hillary. After today, Hillary will have narrowed the gap back to where it was just before Indiana and North Carolina.
Here is a breakdown of the recent history of the delegates:

April 27: Obama by 105
May 5: Obama by 143
May 7: Obama by 159
May 12: Obama by 172 (net increase since the May 6th primaries: 13)

The gap continues to move in the wrong direction for Hillary. Hillary will gain approximately 12 or so delegates today, bringing the gap down to about 160. After next Tuesday, the gap will be about 145 or so (not counting any newly declared superdelegates). So this past week has been a wash for her, and next week will only get her near to where she was on May 5th. No momentum shift, no groundswell change in the path to the nomination. The only change is that the available delegate count is getting smaller and smaller. There are currently about 464 delegates available going into today, by next Tuesday, that number will shrink to about 325. Barack will be about 100 delegates away from the nomination where Hillary will be about 250 from the nomination. Do the math... it is mathematically impossible for her to get within 100 delegates of Barack, let alone pass him and claim the nomination.

And from now until June 3rd, the superdelegates will continue to roll in for Barack. Look for the rest of the superdelegates to put Barack over the top by June 10th.