Wednesday, May 28, 2008

05/28/08 Midday Blog

It's been rather quiet on the delegate front since last week.
Obama has pulled a few more delegates his way. Hillary - not so many.
The way it currently stands is as follows:

Obama:
1661 pledge delegates
317 superdelegates
1978 total delegates

Clinton:
1499 pledge delegates
281 superdelegates
1780 total delegates


Remaining:
86 pledge delegates

198 superdelegates
7 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
291 total delegates available



Obama should pull about 35 of the remaining pledge delegates to Clinton's 52 over the final three primaries. That would give Obama AT LEAST 2013 delegates, and only needing 13 of the superdelegates to flip his way... this is assuming that he gets no additional superdelegates between now and next Tuesday. My guess is that he will get another 5 or so superdelegates... but as he gets closer, many will jump on the bandwagon to be the one to 'put him over the top'

Again, Clinton continues on her demands to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. There is a hearing this weekend that will hopefully put this issue to rest once and for all. Regardless of the outcome, it will at least let us move on to other issues. My guess is that some of those state delegates will be seated. How many, remains to be seen. Even if all were seated per the primary distributions for those states, Obama would be about 50 shy vs. Clinton over 200 away from the nomination.

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