West Virginia Primary

So the latest primary to end all primaries is upon us. Hillary claims that no Democrat has ever won the White House without first winning the primary in WV since 1916... uh, WRONG! Jimmy Carter lost the WV primary to Robert Byrd in 1976 and still won the White House.


So this is all much ado about nothing. West Virginia is no more critical than any other state... It is critical for Hillary as she has her back against the wall. But for Barack? I don't think so. Barack has built up a large enough cushion that is insurmountable for Hillary. After today, Hillary will have narrowed the gap back to where it was just before Indiana and North Carolina.
Here is a breakdown of the recent history of the delegates:

April 27: Obama by 105
May 5: Obama by 143
May 7: Obama by 159
May 12: Obama by 172 (net increase since the May 6th primaries: 13)

The gap continues to move in the wrong direction for Hillary. Hillary will gain approximately 12 or so delegates today, bringing the gap down to about 160. After next Tuesday, the gap will be about 145 or so (not counting any newly declared superdelegates). So this past week has been a wash for her, and next week will only get her near to where she was on May 5th. No momentum shift, no groundswell change in the path to the nomination. The only change is that the available delegate count is getting smaller and smaller. There are currently about 464 delegates available going into today, by next Tuesday, that number will shrink to about 325. Barack will be about 100 delegates away from the nomination where Hillary will be about 250 from the nomination. Do the math... it is mathematically impossible for her to get within 100 delegates of Barack, let alone pass him and claim the nomination.

And from now until June 3rd, the superdelegates will continue to roll in for Barack. Look for the rest of the superdelegates to put Barack over the top by June 10th.