Do the math...

I've taken a look at the three scenarios for how the Florida and Michigan delegates could have been split up. In NONE of the scenarios is Hillary even close to getting a majority, let alone within 150 delegates of Obama's totals. In fact, in both Scenario 1 and 3, Obama would have the requisite delegates as of last night. In Scenario 2, which is the most favorable to Clinton, Obama receives NO delegates from Michigan, yet he is within 45 delegates, where Clinton is still just below 200 delegates away. So anyone claiming that the Rules Committee stole this election from Clinton is living in a fantasy world.

Click on the list below to take a closer look at my data:

OBAMA WINS!

Dozens of superdelegates hopped on the bandwagon and endorsed Barack Obama today, speeding the freight train down the tracks. Just before the South Dakota polls closed, Barack needed just four delegates, which he easily received. Look for Montana to add another 9 delegates to his count, and by morning look for most of the remaining superdelegates to endorse Obama.

It's now midnight on the East Coast. Obama has run up his delegate total to more than 2150. Clinton stands more than 230 delegates behind Obama and nearly 100 short of the 2118 threshold, and yet she still refuses to concede.

Tenacity is one thing. Insanity is another. Now, I don't think she is insane, so she must be angling for something... whether it be the Vice Presidency, or something else. She has to get this issue settled this week and let the Democratic party move on to the General Election and beating John McCain.

Here's how the networks score it:

MSNBC:
Obama: 2156
Clinton: 1933

CNN:
Obama: 2156
Clinton: 1923

Fox:
Obama: 2154
Clinton: 1919

ABC:
Obama: 2154
Clinton: 1916

CBS:
Obama: 2154
Clinton: 1926

05/28/08 Midday Blog

It's been rather quiet on the delegate front since last week.
Obama has pulled a few more delegates his way. Hillary - not so many.
The way it currently stands is as follows:

Obama:
1661 pledge delegates
317 superdelegates
1978 total delegates

Clinton:
1499 pledge delegates
281 superdelegates
1780 total delegates

Remaining:
86 pledge delegates
198 superdelegates
7 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
291 total delegates available


Obama should pull about 35 of the remaining pledge delegates to Clinton's 52 over the final three primaries. That would give Obama AT LEAST 2013 delegates, and only needing 13 of the superdelegates to flip his way... this is assuming that he gets no additional superdelegates between now and next Tuesday. My guess is that he will get another 5 or so superdelegates... but as he gets closer, many will jump on the bandwagon to be the one to 'put him over the top'

Again, Clinton continues on her demands to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. There is a hearing this weekend that will hopefully put this issue to rest once and for all. Regardless of the outcome, it will at least let us move on to other issues. My guess is that some of those state delegates will be seated. How many, remains to be seen. Even if all were seated per the primary distributions for those states, Obama would be about 50 shy vs. Clinton over 200 away from the nomination.

05/23/08 Midday Blog

Four more delegates have moved into the Obama column (2 former Edwards pledge delegates and 2 superdelegates)

Obama:
1660 pledge delegates
309 superdelegates
1969 total delegates

Clinton:
1500 pledge delegates
279 superdelegates
1779 total delegates

Remaining:
86 pledge delegates
208 superdelegates
7 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
303 total delegates available

Obama now needs only 57 delegates to secure the nomination - about 19% of the yet to be awarded delegates.

And as I mentioned in past blogs, if you were to apply the FL & MI delegates as Hillary is demanding, Obama would still lead 2102 to 1971, needing only 108 delegates to Hillary's 239 requirement.

05/22/08 midday blog

Obama:
1658 pledge delegates
307 superdelegates
1965 total delegates

Clinton:
1500 pledge delegates
279 superdelegates
1779 total delegates

Remaining:
88 pledge delegates
210 superdelegates
9 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
307 total delegates available

Obama now needs less than 20% of the remaining delegates to receive the nomiation.
Clinton now needs more than 80% of the remaining delegates for the nomination.

If Florida and Michigan were included into the mix (as Clinton keeps belaboring), Obama would have a 2098 to 1971 lead, and would need 112 additional delegates for the nomination vs. Clinton requiring 239 delegates (again, with only 307 delegates remaining).

Kentucky and Oregon Post-Mortem

So Kentucky and West Virginia have shown that Obama has difficulty with the beer-swilling, gun-toting, junior high educated, Appalachian redneck crowd (cue music from Deliverance). What a surprise!

Here's the tally as of 9:30 am after the KY and OR primaries (with 4 OR delegates still not awarded):
Obama: 1962
Clinton: 1777
Remaining pledge delegates: 92
Remaining superdelegates: 211
(I had predicted 1964 to 1776 - pretty darn close!)

After last night, Hillary is in exactly the same position as she was last Saturday - down by 185 delegates. Actually, she's in a worse position, as there are now 116 fewer delegates up for grabs.

Obama needs 64 (or 21%) of the remaining delegates for the nomination.
Clinton needs 249 (or 82%) of the remaining delegates for the nomination.
In two weeks the final pledge delegates will be awarded. Hillary should win Puerto Rico and Obama should win both Montana and South Dakota. With those primaries in the bank, look for Hillary to receive about 50 of those delegates to Barack's 36. But prior to the June 3rd primaries, look for Obama to continue increasing his lead in the delegate count, so that by the evening of June 3rd, he should be within 20 delegates of the nomination and any large delegate win for Hillary on June 3rd will be insignificant.

As always, stay tuned.

05/20/08 Midday Blog

Obama has widened the gap between him and Clinton today. He stands at 1918 delegates (up 9 since yesterday) to Clinton's 1719 (up 1 since yesterday). After tonight's primary tally, Obama should have about 1964 delegates to Clinton's 1776. She will have gained about a dozen delegates with her big win in Kentucky, but given the limited number of delegates remaining, Obama should be within about 20 by the concluding primaries on June 3rd.

By the way, the Clinton team keeps demanding that the Michigan and Florida state delegates be seated (regardless of her agreeing to omit them back when she 'knew' her candidacy was inevitable). Even if those delegates were counted, Obama would be STILL be leading 2051 to 1911, and within 159 of the nomination (to Clinton's 300 delegate shortfall). So don't believe it when the Clinton team claims they would be in the lead if ALL 50 states were counted. It's just not true!

05/16/08 Midday Blog

24 hours ago, Barack was at 1899 to Hillary's 1719. Today, five more superdelegates have given Barack the nod. None have done so for Hillary.

Current Status:
Barack: 122 delegates away.
Hillary: 307 delegates away.
Remaining: 408 delegates.

Prediction:
By the end of Tuesday's Oregon and Kentucky primaries, Obama will be at or above 1950 delegates, with about 75 or so to go. On the heels of Tuesday are the final primaries (6/01 & 6/03). Look for Barack to be hitting the 2000 delegate mark at the end of these primaries.

05/15/08 Midday Blog

As of right now, according to CNN, Obama has surged to 1899 delegates vs. Clinton's count of 1719. Since the 'devastating' defeat of Obama by Clinton on Tuesday, Obama has increased the gap by 14 delegates. He now only needs about 30% of the remaining delegates to Hillary's 75% requirement.

John Edwards Further Sinks Hillary's Hopes

Today, John Edwards finally hopped off the fence and threw his support to Barack Obama. Look for more superdelegates to continue to align themselves with Barack. Currently, the gap between Obama and Clinton is 166 delegates (CNN count) with 429 delegates unpledged. Obama needs 142 more delegates - less than 1/3 of the remaining delegates. Hillary needs 308 delegates - more than 70% of the remaining delegates.

So Edwards has 18 (NBC) or 19 (CNN) pledge delegates from the primaries. These delegates are not technically bound to go with Edwards' endorsement, but they typically do in fact go with their candidate's choice. If this is in fact the case, Obama is not 142 delegates away, but 123 or 124 away, bringing him within 3% of the nomination. Barack would only need about 28% of the remaining delegates. If this does in fact hold true, by June 3rd, Obama will be within about 20 delegates of the nomination.

Looks pretty grim for Hillary. If the fat lady isn't singing yet, she certainly is warming up her pipes!

Note: Democrat Travis Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis on Tuesday in a Mississippi district that hasn't voted Democratic in more than 15 years. So the required delegate count to receive the nomination has increased by one to 2026, further increasing the number of delegates needed by Hillary.

West Virginia post-mortem

Yes, Hillary won a resounding victory in last night's primary. Hillary gained exactly 12 delegates. In the meantime, Obama gained a few more superdelegates. So the gap between the two stands at approximately 166. I had predicted a gap of about 160 for today, so Barack continues to move toward the nomination. There are about 430 delegates still up for grabs. And Obama needs just 142 of those delegates to win the nomination (that's less than 1/3).

More to follow...

West Virginia Primary

So the latest primary to end all primaries is upon us. Hillary claims that no Democrat has ever won the White House without first winning the primary in WV since 1916... uh, WRONG! Jimmy Carter lost the WV primary to Robert Byrd in 1976 and still won the White House.


So this is all much ado about nothing. West Virginia is no more critical than any other state... It is critical for Hillary as she has her back against the wall. But for Barack? I don't think so. Barack has built up a large enough cushion that is insurmountable for Hillary. After today, Hillary will have narrowed the gap back to where it was just before Indiana and North Carolina.
Here is a breakdown of the recent history of the delegates:

April 27: Obama by 105
May 5: Obama by 143
May 7: Obama by 159
May 12: Obama by 172 (net increase since the May 6th primaries: 13)

The gap continues to move in the wrong direction for Hillary. Hillary will gain approximately 12 or so delegates today, bringing the gap down to about 160. After next Tuesday, the gap will be about 145 or so (not counting any newly declared superdelegates). So this past week has been a wash for her, and next week will only get her near to where she was on May 5th. No momentum shift, no groundswell change in the path to the nomination. The only change is that the available delegate count is getting smaller and smaller. There are currently about 464 delegates available going into today, by next Tuesday, that number will shrink to about 325. Barack will be about 100 delegates away from the nomination where Hillary will be about 250 from the nomination. Do the math... it is mathematically impossible for her to get within 100 delegates of Barack, let alone pass him and claim the nomination.

And from now until June 3rd, the superdelegates will continue to roll in for Barack. Look for the rest of the superdelegates to put Barack over the top by June 10th.