05/28/08 Midday Blog

It's been rather quiet on the delegate front since last week.
Obama has pulled a few more delegates his way. Hillary - not so many.
The way it currently stands is as follows:

Obama:
1661 pledge delegates
317 superdelegates
1978 total delegates

Clinton:
1499 pledge delegates
281 superdelegates
1780 total delegates

Remaining:
86 pledge delegates
198 superdelegates
7 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
291 total delegates available


Obama should pull about 35 of the remaining pledge delegates to Clinton's 52 over the final three primaries. That would give Obama AT LEAST 2013 delegates, and only needing 13 of the superdelegates to flip his way... this is assuming that he gets no additional superdelegates between now and next Tuesday. My guess is that he will get another 5 or so superdelegates... but as he gets closer, many will jump on the bandwagon to be the one to 'put him over the top'

Again, Clinton continues on her demands to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. There is a hearing this weekend that will hopefully put this issue to rest once and for all. Regardless of the outcome, it will at least let us move on to other issues. My guess is that some of those state delegates will be seated. How many, remains to be seen. Even if all were seated per the primary distributions for those states, Obama would be about 50 shy vs. Clinton over 200 away from the nomination.

05/16/08 Midday Blog

24 hours ago, Barack was at 1899 to Hillary's 1719. Today, five more superdelegates have given Barack the nod. None have done so for Hillary.

Current Status:
Barack: 122 delegates away.
Hillary: 307 delegates away.
Remaining: 408 delegates.

Prediction:
By the end of Tuesday's Oregon and Kentucky primaries, Obama will be at or above 1950 delegates, with about 75 or so to go. On the heels of Tuesday are the final primaries (6/01 & 6/03). Look for Barack to be hitting the 2000 delegate mark at the end of these primaries.

John Edwards Further Sinks Hillary's Hopes

Today, John Edwards finally hopped off the fence and threw his support to Barack Obama. Look for more superdelegates to continue to align themselves with Barack. Currently, the gap between Obama and Clinton is 166 delegates (CNN count) with 429 delegates unpledged. Obama needs 142 more delegates - less than 1/3 of the remaining delegates. Hillary needs 308 delegates - more than 70% of the remaining delegates.

So Edwards has 18 (NBC) or 19 (CNN) pledge delegates from the primaries. These delegates are not technically bound to go with Edwards' endorsement, but they typically do in fact go with their candidate's choice. If this is in fact the case, Obama is not 142 delegates away, but 123 or 124 away, bringing him within 3% of the nomination. Barack would only need about 28% of the remaining delegates. If this does in fact hold true, by June 3rd, Obama will be within about 20 delegates of the nomination.

Looks pretty grim for Hillary. If the fat lady isn't singing yet, she certainly is warming up her pipes!

Note: Democrat Travis Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis on Tuesday in a Mississippi district that hasn't voted Democratic in more than 15 years. So the required delegate count to receive the nomination has increased by one to 2026, further increasing the number of delegates needed by Hillary.