Kentucky and Oregon Post-Mortem

So Kentucky and West Virginia have shown that Obama has difficulty with the beer-swilling, gun-toting, junior high educated, Appalachian redneck crowd (cue music from Deliverance). What a surprise!

Here's the tally as of 9:30 am after the KY and OR primaries (with 4 OR delegates still not awarded):
Obama: 1962
Clinton: 1777
Remaining pledge delegates: 92
Remaining superdelegates: 211
(I had predicted 1964 to 1776 - pretty darn close!)

After last night, Hillary is in exactly the same position as she was last Saturday - down by 185 delegates. Actually, she's in a worse position, as there are now 116 fewer delegates up for grabs.

Obama needs 64 (or 21%) of the remaining delegates for the nomination.
Clinton needs 249 (or 82%) of the remaining delegates for the nomination.
In two weeks the final pledge delegates will be awarded. Hillary should win Puerto Rico and Obama should win both Montana and South Dakota. With those primaries in the bank, look for Hillary to receive about 50 of those delegates to Barack's 36. But prior to the June 3rd primaries, look for Obama to continue increasing his lead in the delegate count, so that by the evening of June 3rd, he should be within 20 delegates of the nomination and any large delegate win for Hillary on June 3rd will be insignificant.

As always, stay tuned.