Cronypedia

Countdown Calendar

2008-11-10T15:38:00.001-08:00

Joe The Plumber's Day Off

2008-10-31T00:29:00.001-07:00

The Cliffs Notes Candidate

2008-09-25T17:17:00.001-07:00

If there was ever a candidate that was in way over their head, Sarah Palin is it. No response is too vapid, cliche, or simplistic for her.

"John McCain is a maverick because people call him a maverick."
"I have foreign policy experience because my state is next door to Russia."

And from her painfully inept interview with Katie Couric, when asked about the Russia/Alaska/Foreign Policy issue, here was her response:

"It's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the airspace of the United States of America, where, where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border. It is from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there. They are right next to, to our state."

Last time I checked, the only areas of Russia that are close to Alaska are barely inhabited. In fact, Russia's national governmental seat is in MOSCOW, which is actually in EUROPE not ASIA! 4300 miles from Wasilla, Alaska. I doubt very seriously that the Alaska Air National Guard is regularly on the lookout for Russian diplomatic flights over Palin's home town.

TDS - Best F***ing News Team Ever

2008-09-05T09:38:00.000-07:00

Wide Stance Larry should be proud!

Watch the Republicans devour their own.

2008-09-03T15:45:00.000-07:00

Nothing like party unity at the convention.
I guess Peggy Noonan and Mike Murphy didn't get the memo.

Wasilla City Hall - a major metropolitan stopping point.

2008-09-03T15:40:00.000-07:00

It's One Stop Shopping at the new Wasilla City Hall.
Come down and get your film developed, checks cashed... heck, we even have a new Hot Dog on a Stick!

Sarah Palin's VAST knowledge of Vice Presidential Duties

2008-08-31T14:44:00.001-07:00

Presidential Summer Vacations

2008-07-28T22:39:00.000-07:00

Election Day is coming!

2008-07-20T21:34:00.000-07:00

Larry Craig and his nozzle are at it again!

2008-07-17T22:37:00.000-07:00

Larry Craig once again puts his nozzle in his mouth with his excellent choice of words.

Mark Sanford on McBush's stance on NAFTA

2008-07-13T13:34:00.001-07:00

Governor Mark Sanford eloquently describes the MANY differences between John McCain and George Bush, and cites NAFTA as a prime example!

McCain - Distancing himself from Bush... REALLY?

2008-07-05T12:44:00.000-07:00

John McCain likes to claim that he has fought the Bush Administration on key issues... like global warming...

McClellan to testify this week

2008-06-16T10:11:00.000-07:00

Let's see if Scott McClellan can shed any light on the corruption within the White House. My guess is that it will be somewhat insightful, but will come up far short in revealing the smoking gun we all know is hidden under Bush's pillow.

From The Public Record:
Former White House press secretary Scott McClellan’s testimony later this week before the House Judiciary Committee promises to reignite the debate over the “16 words” in President Bush’s 2003 State of the Union address that claimed Iraq tried to purchase 500 tons of yellowcake uranium from Niger, and how the White House’s aggressive effort to defend the bogus intelligence lead to the leak of covert CIA operative Valerie Plame.
Read on...

McCain Campaign Leads Relief Efforts For Unemployed Lobbyists

2008-06-16T09:55:00.000-07:00

Unconfirmed Sources reports:
McCain "Struggling Lobbyists Need Our Help!"(Washington D.C.) Ucs News- Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain Announced Sunday his campaign would help organize a relief fund for Washington lobbyists "cast aside" by the Obama campaign and Democratic National Committee. "In these tough economic times the high living K-Street lobbyists should not be made to suffer." Said McCain.
Read on...

Gas prices - Thru the Roof!!!

2008-06-16T09:39:00.000-07:00

Gas prices keep shooting up and up and up...

Ventura Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

Wondertwin Obamas

2008-06-16T09:25:00.000-07:00

The real meaning behind the 'Obama Fist Bump'

Do the math...

2008-06-04T09:13:00.000-07:00

I've taken a look at the three scenarios for how the Florida and Michigan delegates could have been split up. In NONE of the scenarios is Hillary even close to getting a majority, let alone within 150 delegates of Obama's totals. In fact, in both Scenario 1 and 3, Obama would have the requisite delegates as of last night. In Scenario 2, which is the most favorable to Clinton, Obama receives NO delegates from Michigan, yet he is within 45 delegates, where Clinton is still just below 200 delegates away. So anyone claiming that the Rules Committee stole this election from Clinton is living in a fantasy world.

Click on the list below to take a closer look at my data:

OBAMA WINS!

2008-06-03T18:02:00.000-07:00

Dozens of superdelegates hopped on the bandwagon and endorsed Barack Obama today, speeding the freight train down the tracks. Just before the South Dakota polls closed, Barack needed just four delegates, which he easily received. Look for Montana to add another 9 delegates to his count, and by morning look for most of the remaining superdelegates to endorse Obama.

It's now midnight on the East Coast. Obama has run up his delegate total to more than 2150. Clinton stands more than 230 delegates behind Obama and nearly 100 short of the 2118 threshold, and yet she still refuses to concede.

Tenacity is one thing. Insanity is another. Now, I don't think she is insane, so she must be angling for something... whether it be the Vice Presidency, or something else. She has to get this issue settled this week and let the Democratic party move on to the General Election and beating John McCain.

Here's how the networks score it:

MSNBC:
Obama: 2156
Clinton: 1933

CNN:
Obama: 2156
Clinton: 1923

Fox:
Obama: 2154
Clinton: 1919

ABC:
Obama: 2154
Clinton: 1916

CBS:
Obama: 2154
Clinton: 1926

McCain's Lobbyists

2008-06-01T22:30:00.000-07:00

John McCain, the 'maverick' Republican Presidential candidate, claimed that lobbyists should not have any part of a political campaign. "Registered lobbyists who work for campaigns as fundraisers clearly represent a conflict of interest," McCain said in 1996. "When a campaign employs an individual who also lobbies that member, the perception of undue and unfair influence is raised."

Flash forward to 2008. Here's a list of the McCain lobbyists who currently work, or have up until recently been working on his campaign staff. I'll be taking a closer look at these people over the coming weeks.

McCain's Inner Circle. Click on the links, these guys actually advertise that they are lobbyists on the McCain payroll!

Rick Davis: McCain Campaign Director

Lobbying connections:

David Manafort, Inc. (Lobbying firm, founder)
COMSAT
SBC Communications

Wayne Berman: National Finance Committee Co-Chair & Senior Adviser

Lobbying connections:

Ogilvy Government Relations (Lobbyist and Managing Director)
Carlyle Group
Citigroup
Airbus

Charlie Black: Chief Political Adviser

Lobbying connections:

BKSH & Associates (Chairman)
General Motors
United Technologies
JP Morgan
AT&T

David Crane: Senior Political Adviser

Lobbying connections:

Quadripoint Strategies (Lobbyist and President)
Bank of America
Financial Services Roundtable
US Chamber of Commerce

Mike Dennehy: National Political Director

Lobbying Connections:

The Dennehy Group (Founder)

Other lobbyist/campaign members:
Carlos Bonilla
Tom Loeffler
Wiliam Ball
Susan Nelson
James Courter
Anthony Villamil
Christian Ferry
James Rill
John Green
John Timmons
Brian Ballard

Grant Aldonas
Nancy Pfotenhauer
Jerry Kilgore
Slade Gorton
Joseph Wright
Richard Zimmer
Don Sunquist
William Hilleary
Aquiles Suarez
Matt Salmon
Robert Aiker
Kirk Blalock
Timothy McCone

Other notables:
Vicki Iseman
Lowell 'Bud' Paxson

05/28/08 Midday Blog

2008-05-28T12:00:00.000-07:00

It's been rather quiet on the delegate front since last week.
Obama has pulled a few more delegates his way. Hillary - not so many.
The way it currently stands is as follows:

Obama:
1661 pledge delegates
317 superdelegates
1978 total delegates

Clinton:
1499 pledge delegates
281 superdelegates
1780 total delegates

Remaining:
86 pledge delegates
198 superdelegates
7 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
291 total delegates available

Obama should pull about 35 of the remaining pledge delegates to Clinton's 52 over the final three primaries. That would give Obama AT LEAST 2013 delegates, and only needing 13 of the superdelegates to flip his way... this is assuming that he gets no additional superdelegates between now and next Tuesday. My guess is that he will get another 5 or so superdelegates... but as he gets closer, many will jump on the bandwagon to be the one to 'put him over the top'

Again, Clinton continues on her demands to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. There is a hearing this weekend that will hopefully put this issue to rest once and for all. Regardless of the outcome, it will at least let us move on to other issues. My guess is that some of those state delegates will be seated. How many, remains to be seen. Even if all were seated per the primary distributions for those states, Obama would be about 50 shy vs. Clinton over 200 away from the nomination.

Hillary and the real story of the RFK statement

2008-05-26T07:45:00.001-07:00

Responding to a question from the Sioux Falls Argus Leader editorial board about calls for her to drop out of the race, she said: "My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. You know I just, I don't understand it," she said, dismissing the idea of abandoning the race.

While this quote was clearly a gaffe by Mrs. Clinton, I don't put too much stock in the premise that the RFK assassination comment was an intentional link to assassinating a surging presidential candidate. However, one part of her comments requires more analysis. This relates to the reference to her husband's primary battle in 1992 and the battle (or lack thereof) that ensued leading up his wrapping up the nomination.

In 1992 there were initially 7 Democratic Candidates, but only a few were actual contenders. Early in the election season, President Bush (the first) was riding some of the highest polling numbers of any sitting president, due mostly to the success of the first Gulf War. But those numbers quickly started to fall off, until they completely fell of the cliff. He was able to somewhat pull his poll numbers back up near the general election. But by that time it was too late. Ross Perot had entered the race, splitting the Republican fence-sitters and handing the presidency to Bill Clinton.

Let's look at the major democratic competition back in 1992:

Tom Harkin: Won the Iowa caucases and Idaho and Minnesota, but fared poorly in New Hampshire. Harkin dropped out of the race on March 9th.
Bob Kerrey: Announced his candidacy in September 1991. His candidacy was never considered part of the top-tier. He finished a distant third in New Hampshire in February. He rebounded by winning South Dakota (his only win), but dropped out after finishing a lackluster fourth in Colorado on March 3rd. By this date, there were only three candidates left, Clinton, Tsongas and Brown.

Paul Tsongas: Won the New Hampshire primary, but was unable to match Clinton in fundraising. James Carville had accurately declared Clinton the 'Comeback Kid' after New Hampshire, and things were rolling for the Clinton nomination. Tsongas withdrew from the race on March 17, but carried 289 delegates to the convention.

Jerry Brown: Jerry Brown was the only opposing candidate that actually posed a threat to Clinton late in the primary season. A narrow win in Wisconsin (37% to 34%) gave him some credibility, but on the same day, he was pummelled in New York (41% to 26%). This essentially ended the competitive primary campaign. Brown, however, brought 596 delegates to the convention.

And let's take a closer look at the actual primary schedule from 1992. First of all, the primaries didn't START until February 10th. Here's the schedule and winners of each primary:

February 10:
Iowa - Harkin easily wins

February 18:
New Hampshire - Tsongas wins

February 25:
South Dakota - Kerrey’s only win

March 3:
Colorado - Brown
Georgia - Clinton
Maryland - Tsongas
Minnesota caucus - Harkin
Idaho caucus - Harkin

March 7:
South Carolina - Clinton

March 10:
Florida - Clinton
Louisiana - Clinton
Massachusetts - Tsongas
Mississippi - Clinton
Oklahoma - Clinton
Rhode Island - Tsongas
Tennessee - Clinton
Texas - Clinton
Hawaii caucus - Clinton
Missouri caucus - Clinton
Delaware caucus - Tsongas
Clinton builds a big lead by this date.

March 17:
Illinois - Clinton
Michigan - Clinton

March 24:
Connecticut - surpising win by Brown

April 7:
Kansas - Clinton
Minnesota primary - Clinton
New York - Clinton
Wisconsin - Clinton

April 28:
Pennsylvania - Clinton

May 5:
District of Columbia
Indiana - Clinton
North Carolina - Clinton

May 12:
Nebraska - Clinton
West Virginia - Clinton

May 19:
Oregon - Clinton
Washington - Clinton

May 26:
Arkansas - Clinton
Idaho - Clinton
Kentucky - Clinton

June 2:
Alabama - Clinton
California - Clinton
Montana - Clinton
New Jersey - Clinton
New Mexico - Clinton
Ohio - Clinton

June 9:
North Dakota - Clinton

After March 24th, Clinton never lost another primary. He rolled to the nomination, even capturing California, the home state of his chief rival, Jerry Brown. It was never a close race by the beginning of May, let alone the middle of June as Mrs. Clinton claims.

So all of this is in reality a stronger argument for Hillary to stay in the race. This race is still far more up in the air than 1992 (even though it is pretty clear that Obama will cross the finish line first). The problem with her statement is the inherent dishonesty in it. Had she argued that her husband had a much easier ride in 1992 and this is the closest primary season, the credibility of the argument would be much stronger.

Crony Of the Week - 05/26/08: Tim Griffin

2008-05-25T23:37:00.000-07:00

For those of you who still remember the US Attorney scandal from a couple years ago, here's a name you probably remember.

Tim Griffin - he's now the Republican National Committee's Director of Research (aka Mudslinging Central). He'll be heading up 'opposition research' for the McCain Campaign. So look for more Swift Boat attacks on Obama.

Let's take a closer look at Mr. Griffin's illustrious resume:

1999 - 2000: Deputy Research Director for the Bush Campaign.
2000: Legal adviser for the Bush-Cheney Recount Team
2004: Research Director and Deputy Communications Director for the Bush Campaign, where, among his slimy work, he reported led a vote caging scheme for the Republicans.
2005-2006: Special Assistant to the President and Deputy Director in the Office of Political Affairs (in other words, Karl Rove's personal toadie).
In December of 2006, after the Bush Administration booted several US Attorneys, Mr. Griffin was named as the interim US Attorney for the Eastern District of Arkansas. It was revealed by Congressional investigations that the White House wanted the Arkansas US Attorney position vacant so they could specifically insert Griffin into it. Hmmm.... I wonder if there was any potential Democratic presidential hopeful with ties to Arkansas back in '06 who he could have dredged up some dirt on? I wonder... unfortunately for the White House, the Congressional investigation short-circuited their plans to have Griffin poke around to try to discover something untoward about the Clintons.
On June 1, 2007, right in the middle of Congressional investigations, Griffin resigned his US Attorney post...

But of course, like chewing gum stuck to the bottom of your shoe, he's not THAT easy to get rid of. He's back once again, to work his magic on Obama. It's going to be a long and bumpy road to November.

05/23/08 Midday Blog

2008-05-23T11:07:00.000-07:00

Four more delegates have moved into the Obama column (2 former Edwards pledge delegates and 2 superdelegates)

Obama:
1660 pledge delegates
309 superdelegates
1969 total delegates

Clinton:
1500 pledge delegates
279 superdelegates
1779 total delegates

Remaining:
86 pledge delegates
208 superdelegates
7 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
303 total delegates available

Obama now needs only 57 delegates to secure the nomination - about 19% of the yet to be awarded delegates.

And as I mentioned in past blogs, if you were to apply the FL & MI delegates as Hillary is demanding, Obama would still lead 2102 to 1971, needing only 108 delegates to Hillary's 239 requirement.

McCain expected to say "Goodnight, Gracie" by 2008

2008-05-23T08:23:00.000-07:00

In a 2000 interview by Jim Lehrer, McCain thought he would be too old to be president by 2008. So why should we believe that he isn't too old now?

h/t to Crooksandliars

The Republican Party "Rebrands" Itself

2008-05-22T17:01:00.001-07:00

"We're going to give you the change you deserve"

House Minority Leader, John Bohener

New name, same stink!

Brother can you spare a dime?

05/22/08 midday blog

2008-05-22T16:19:00.001-07:00

Obama:
1658 pledge delegates
307 superdelegates
1965 total delegates

Clinton:
1500 pledge delegates
279 superdelegates
1779 total delegates

Remaining:
88 pledge delegates
210 superdelegates
9 pledge delegates previously awarded to Edwards
307 total delegates available

Obama now needs less than 20% of the remaining delegates to receive the nomiation.
Clinton now needs more than 80% of the remaining delegates for the nomination.

If Florida and Michigan were included into the mix (as Clinton keeps belaboring), Obama would have a 2098 to 1971 lead, and would need 112 additional delegates for the nomination vs. Clinton requiring 239 delegates (again, with only 307 delegates remaining).

Kentucky and Oregon Post-Mortem

2008-05-21T09:20:00.000-07:00

So Kentucky and West Virginia have shown that Obama has difficulty with the beer-swilling, gun-toting, junior high educated, Appalachian redneck crowd (cue music from Deliverance). What a surprise!

Here's the tally as of 9:30 am after the KY and OR primaries (with 4 OR delegates still not awarded):
Obama: 1962
Clinton: 1777
Remaining pledge delegates: 92
Remaining superdelegates: 211
(I had predicted 1964 to 1776 - pretty darn close!)

After last night, Hillary is in exactly the same position as she was last Saturday - down by 185 delegates. Actually, she's in a worse position, as there are now 116 fewer delegates up for grabs.

Obama needs 64 (or 21%) of the remaining delegates for the nomination.
Clinton needs 249 (or 82%) of the remaining delegates for the nomination.
In two weeks the final pledge delegates will be awarded. Hillary should win Puerto Rico and Obama should win both Montana and South Dakota. With those primaries in the bank, look for Hillary to receive about 50 of those delegates to Barack's 36. But prior to the June 3rd primaries, look for Obama to continue increasing his lead in the delegate count, so that by the evening of June 3rd, he should be within 20 delegates of the nomination and any large delegate win for Hillary on June 3rd will be insignificant.

As always, stay tuned.

05/20/08 Midday Blog

2008-05-20T14:24:00.000-07:00

Obama has widened the gap between him and Clinton today. He stands at 1918 delegates (up 9 since yesterday) to Clinton's 1719 (up 1 since yesterday). After tonight's primary tally, Obama should have about 1964 delegates to Clinton's 1776. She will have gained about a dozen delegates with her big win in Kentucky, but given the limited number of delegates remaining, Obama should be within about 20 by the concluding primaries on June 3rd.

By the way, the Clinton team keeps demanding that the Michigan and Florida state delegates be seated (regardless of her agreeing to omit them back when she 'knew' her candidacy was inevitable). Even if those delegates were counted, Obama would be STILL be leading 2051 to 1911, and within 159 of the nomination (to Clinton's 300 delegate shortfall). So don't believe it when the Clinton team claims they would be in the lead if ALL 50 states were counted. It's just not true!

Kevin James and his fresh (never frozen) Garden Appeasers

2008-05-18T22:36:00.000-07:00

Hats off to Chris Matthews for exposing this rube for what he is - just another right wingnut spewing the latest party talking points. And to think that someone this intellectually shallow was once a federal prosecutor! And David Iglesias was fired for substandard performance? WOW.

McCain Flip Flops on Hamas

2008-05-16T15:12:00.001-07:00

05/16/08 Midday Blog

2008-05-16T14:41:00.000-07:00

24 hours ago, Barack was at 1899 to Hillary's 1719. Today, five more superdelegates have given Barack the nod. None have done so for Hillary.

Current Status:
Barack: 122 delegates away.
Hillary: 307 delegates away.
Remaining: 408 delegates.

Prediction:
By the end of Tuesday's Oregon and Kentucky primaries, Obama will be at or above 1950 delegates, with about 75 or so to go. On the heels of Tuesday are the final primaries (6/01 & 6/03). Look for Barack to be hitting the 2000 delegate mark at the end of these primaries.

MS-01 Special Election Results - The Shape of Things to Come

2008-05-15T23:15:00.000-07:00

On Tuesday, Travis Childers (D) defeated Greg Davis (R) in the special election run-off for the House seat vacated by Roger Wickers (R). The Democrats are now 3-0 in recent special elections for seats traditionally considered safe Republican seats - MS-01, LA-06, IL-14. In fact, the Illinois 14th district was Speaker of the House Denny Hastert's seat. These three defeats can only be considered stunning upsets to the party, and a very dark foreshadowing of November.

In December, Wickers was appointed to the Senate seat that Trent Lott abdicated in December. In January, the lobbying rules changed - former legislators now cannot become lobbyists for two years rather than one - I wonder if THAT had anything to do with Lott leaving the Senate prior to completing his term, but that's a whole other story!

The real story from Tuesday night is NOT Hillary's huge win in West Virginia. It is the stunning MS-01 victory of Childers. Former congressman Wickers has held this seat since the 'Republican Revolution' of 1994. In fact, over the past four election cycles, Wickers has won his seat by no less than 30%. This has been clearly considered a safe seat for the Republicans. Not anymore. And the Democrats should consider a huge number of Republican seats targets.

05/15/08 Midday Blog

2008-05-15T13:10:00.000-07:00

As of right now, according to CNN, Obama has surged to 1899 delegates vs. Clinton's count of 1719. Since the 'devastating' defeat of Obama by Clinton on Tuesday, Obama has increased the gap by 14 delegates. He now only needs about 30% of the remaining delegates to Hillary's 75% requirement.

Bush, the great statesman, addresses the Israeli Parliament

2008-05-15T08:09:00.000-07:00

This week President Bush delivered a speech to the Israeli parliament commemorating the 60th anniversary of Israel. In his speech, Bush made the ridiculous claim that Senator Barack Obama and the Democrats favor a policy of appeasement toward terrorists. He compared the Democrats to WWII politicians as: “other U.S. leaders back in the run-up to World War II who appeased the Nazis.”

In his speech, Bush said, “As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: ‘Lord, if only I could have talked to Hitler, all of this might have been avoided.’ We have an obligation to call this what it is – the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history.”

White House aides are acknowledging that this was a reference to the fact that Obama and other Democrats have publicly said that it would be ok for the U.S. President to meet with leaders like the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. Of course, the current policy of burying one’s head in the sand and refusing to talk to our adversaries has been so effective.

Where would this country be if Kennedy had not talked to Kruschev; had Nixon not talked to the Chinese; if Reagan had not talked to Gorbachev? Bush’s short sided, our way or the highway mentality has done tremendous damage to this country’s standing in the world. Thank God this reign of terror will end in eight months.

McCain's Hypocrisy

2008-05-15T00:19:00.000-07:00

For the 'maverick' who bucks the Republican establishment, McCain is hardly an independent voice. His wife, Cindy, continues to flagrantly thumb her nose at releasing her tax records, claiming that she's not the candidate so her records are immaterial. Four years ago, when Democrat John Kerry's wife was castigated by the Republicans for holding back on her tax records, she finally relented. So where are the Republicans now? Curiously silent.

What does Cindy McCain's tax record have to do with the presidential race. In reality, not too much, except for the fact that John McCain is jetting around on her private plane (the Sugar-Momma Express, or as Sam Seder has named it - Trollup One). McCain the candidate is directly benefiting from the use of a private CORPORATE jet.

In an interview by ABC last week, Mrs. McCain was quoted as saying (in that sickly sweet, soft-spoken drawl): "My husband and I have been married 28 years, and we have filed separate tax returns for 28 years." Hmmm... my question is why have they filed separate returns for all those years? What is she trying to hide? Could it be that having her HUGE income included in Mr. McCain's return would make this 'maverick' man of the people look like just another fat-cat politician?

Back when McCain was pretty much written off as a candidate for the 2008 nomination, he agreed to accept matching funds, which limits the amount of private funds a candidate can use in the campaign. He used this promise to secure additional loans for his campaign. After he began to surge in the primaries and the donor money started to roll in, he said never mind. Since he never actually collected the matching funds, he was not bound by the
promise he already made. Hmmmm... let's see, can I borrow your house to use as collateral to get a personal loan and then give it back when I get my loans? That doesn't seem legal does it? Guess what? IT'S NOT! McCain willfully broke the law to raise the cash to secure the nomination.

There's your 'maverick'. Sounds more like politics as usual to me.

John Edwards Further Sinks Hillary's Hopes

2008-05-14T23:21:00.000-07:00

Today, John Edwards finally hopped off the fence and threw his support to Barack Obama. Look for more superdelegates to continue to align themselves with Barack. Currently, the gap between Obama and Clinton is 166 delegates (CNN count) with 429 delegates unpledged. Obama needs 142 more delegates - less than 1/3 of the remaining delegates. Hillary needs 308 delegates - more than 70% of the remaining delegates.

So Edwards has 18 (NBC) or 19 (CNN) pledge delegates from the primaries. These delegates are not technically bound to go with Edwards' endorsement, but they typically do in fact go with their candidate's choice. If this is in fact the case, Obama is not 142 delegates away, but 123 or 124 away, bringing him within 3% of the nomination. Barack would only need about 28% of the remaining delegates. If this does in fact hold true, by June 3rd, Obama will be within about 20 delegates of the nomination.

Looks pretty grim for Hillary. If the fat lady isn't singing yet, she certainly is warming up her pipes!

Note: Democrat Travis Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis on Tuesday in a Mississippi district that hasn't voted Democratic in more than 15 years. So the required delegate count to receive the nomination has increased by one to 2026, further increasing the number of delegates needed by Hillary.

West Virginia post-mortem

2008-05-14T07:23:00.000-07:00

Yes, Hillary won a resounding victory in last night's primary. Hillary gained exactly 12 delegates. In the meantime, Obama gained a few more superdelegates. So the gap between the two stands at approximately 166. I had predicted a gap of about 160 for today, so Barack continues to move toward the nomination. There are about 430 delegates still up for grabs. And Obama needs just 142 of those delegates to win the nomination (that's less than 1/3).

More to follow...

West Virginia Primary

2008-05-13T12:43:00.000-07:00

So the latest primary to end all primaries is upon us. Hillary claims that no Democrat has ever won the White House without first winning the primary in WV since 1916... uh, WRONG! Jimmy Carter lost the WV primary to Robert Byrd in 1976 and still won the White House.

So this is all much ado about nothing. West Virginia is no more critical than any other state... It is critical for Hillary as she has her back against the wall. But for Barack? I don't think so. Barack has built up a large enough cushion that is insurmountable for Hillary. After today, Hillary will have narrowed the gap back to where it was just before Indiana and North Carolina.
Here is a breakdown of the recent history of the delegates:

April 27: Obama by 105
May 5: Obama by 143
May 7: Obama by 159
May 12: Obama by 172 (net increase since the May 6th primaries: 13)

The gap continues to move in the wrong direction for Hillary. Hillary will gain approximately 12 or so delegates today, bringing the gap down to about 160. After next Tuesday, the gap will be about 145 or so (not counting any newly declared superdelegates). So this past week has been a wash for her, and next week will only get her near to where she was on May 5th. No momentum shift, no groundswell change in the path to the nomination. The only change is that the available delegate count is getting smaller and smaller. There are currently about 464 delegates available going into today, by next Tuesday, that number will shrink to about 325. Barack will be about 100 delegates away from the nomination where Hillary will be about 250 from the nomination. Do the math... it is mathematically impossible for her to get within 100 delegates of Barack, let alone pass him and claim the nomination.

And from now until June 3rd, the superdelegates will continue to roll in for Barack. Look for the rest of the superdelegates to put Barack over the top by June 10th.